The average demand for electricity in Brazil is expected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2024, according to projections published by ONS, the federal agency that operates the national power grid.
The average electricity demand is expected to reach 78,447 MW, up from a projected 75,791 MW this year. The peaks, however, are demonstrably higher: on November 14, Brazil broke its electricity demand record for the second day in a row, reaching more than 100,000 MW at 2:20 pm, when the heat was more intense.
Demand for power grew in the last twelve months across Brazil’s five regions, with the largest increases in the North (12.1 percent) and Northeast (4 percent), the country’s poorest.
Power demand is expected to grow an average of 3.2 percent per year in the 2024-2028 period, reaching an average of 89,023 MW in 2028. The data considers that Roraima, Brazil’s northernmost state that borders Venezuela, will finally be integrated into the national grid by late 2025.
The new projections also take revised economic data into account. The ONS revised the expected GDP growth in 2023 from 2.3 percent to 3 percent and the expected growth in 2024 from 1.7 percent to 2 percent.
“Relevant positive actors in this scenario are lower inflationary pressure, allowing the interest rate reduction process to continue; favorable performance of the labor market; policies to stimulate economic activity, such as [debt relief program] Desenrola Brasil and the new [infrastructure program] PAC; [and] the implementation of the tax reform,” the report says.
Brazil’s landmark tax reform, modified by the Senate, is pending a new vote in the House. Congressman Aguinaldo Ribeiro, the reform’s rapporteur in the House, said that Speaker Arthur Lira had indicated a floor vote for next week.
Risks for the ONS projections to come to fruition include “geopolitical, health and climate issues, in addition to inflationary dynamics and the management of fiscal issues,” according to the report.
Source: Brazilian Report
