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Drought in South America April 2023, GDO Analytical Report

Executive summary

  • Multi-annual precipitation deficits combined with above-average temperatures and a sequence of heatwaves are the cause of the long-running and extensive drought in central-southern South America.
  • From August 2022 to March 2023 the drought has diminished in Brazil and moved southwards, now affecting mainly northern Argentina and Uruguay.
  • Hydrology and vegetation are severely affected by the drought, with impacts on crops, rivers flow and energy production. Widespread impacts due to the drought can be linked to the estimated 3% GDP reduction in 2023 in Argentina.
  • After three years of La Niña conditions, the tropical Pacific Ocean has entered neutral ENSO conditions and a transition to an El Niño phase is forecasted for the coming months.
  • Seasonal forecasts point to warmer temperatures, close to average precipitation and lower than average river flows.

Source : Relief Web